2007 Results
Hillary and Giuliani most favored presidential candidates among Erie County voters; Griffin and Collins frontrunners for County Executive
Williamsville, New York - Goldhaber Research Associates, LLC (GRA) announces that close to half (48%) of all registered Democrats in Erie county favor Hillary, while just over ten percent (11.5%) favor Obama, as their ’08 presidential nominee. In an earlier poll of 282 registered Democrats in the City of Buffalo, conducted April 19-24, 2007, 42% of registered Democrats favored Hillary and 18% favored Obama. A quarter of all registered Democrats also prefer Jimmy Griffin as next the County Executive, while 19% favor James Keane, and 18% favor Paul Clark.
Among registered Republicans, more than two-fifths (42%) favor Rudy Giuliani, while under ten percent (9.3%) favor John McCain, as their ’08 presidential nominee. Close to a third (31%) of all Erie County Republicans also favor Chris Collins, while only 14% favored Bill O’Laughlin, as the next County Executive.
GRA, the area’s largest market research firm, conducted the poll, which surveyed 400 registered voters, who live in Erie County. Of the respondents, 260 were registered Democrats (margin of error +/- 6.80%) and 140 were registered Republicans (margin of error +/- 8.28%). The poll was conducted July 24 - August 01, 2007.
Table: With which political party are you registered to vote?
|
Gener |
|
Total |
Male |
Female |
|
Base |
260 |
121 |
134 |
Senator Joe Biden |
9
3.5% |
6
5.0% |
2
1.5% |
Senator Hillary Clinton |
124
47.7% |
59
48.8% |
65
48.5% |
Senator Christopher Dodd |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Former Senator John Edwards |
11
4.2% |
4
3.3% |
7
5.2% |
Former Senator Mike Gravel |
1
0.4% |
0
0.0% |
1
0.7% |
Representative Dennis Kucinich |
1
0.4% |
1
0.8% |
0
0.0% |
Senator Barack Obama |
30
11.5% |
15
12.4% |
15
11.2% |
Governor Bill Richardson |
3
1.2% |
3
2.5%
+ |
0
0.0% |
None of the above
(DO NOT READ) |
5
1.9% |
3
2.5% |
2
1.5% |
Don't know/Not sure/Undecided
(DO NOT READ) |
74
28.5% |
29
24.0% |
41
30.6% |
Refused (DO NOT READ) |
2
0.8% |
1
0.8% |
1
0.7% |
Table: If the Democratic presidential primary was held today, for whom would you most likely vote?
|
Ethnicity |
Gener |
|
Total |
White |
Afr. Amer . |
Hisp. |
Asian |
Native Amer. |
Other |
Ref |
Total |
Male |
Female |
| Base |
260 |
211 |
38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
260 |
121 |
134 |
Senator Joe Biden |
9
3.5% |
7
3.3% |
1
2.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
9
3.5% |
6
5.0% |
2
1.5% |
Senator Hillary Clinton |
124
47.7% |
106
50.2%
+ |
16
42.1% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
50.0% |
1
25.0%
|
124
47.7% |
59
48.8% |
65
48.5% |
Senator Christopher Dodd |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Former Senator John Edwards |
11
4.2% |
11
5.2% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
11
0.4% |
4
3.3% |
7
5.2% |
Former Senator Mike Gravel |
1
0.4% |
1
0.5% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
0.4% |
0
0.0% |
1
0.7% |
Representative Dennis Kucinich |
1
0.4% |
0
0.0% |
1
2.6%
++ |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
0.4% |
1
0.8% |
0
0.0% |
Senator Barack Obama |
30
11.5% |
18
8.5%
--- |
10
26.3%
+++ |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
50.0% |
1
25.0% |
30
11.5% |
15
12.4% |
15
11.2% |
Governor Bill Richardson |
3
1.2% |
2
0.9% |
1
2.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
3
1.2% |
3
2.5%
|
0
0.0% |
None of the above
(DO NOT READ) |
5
1.9% |
5
2.4% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
5
1.9% |
3
2.5% |
2
1.5% |
Don't know/Not sure/Undecided
(DO NOT READ) |
74
28.5% |
60
28.4% |
8
21.1% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
2
50.0% |
74
28.5% |
29
24.0% |
41
30.6% |
Refused (DO NOT READ) |
2
0.8% |
1
0.5%
|
1
2.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
2
0.8% |
1
0.8% |
1
0.7% |
Table: If the primary election for Erie County executive was held today, for whom you most likely vote?
|
Gener |
|
Total |
Male |
Female |
|
Base |
260 |
121 |
134 |
Paul Clark |
47
18.1% |
20
16.5% |
26
19.4% |
James Keane |
48
18.5% |
20
16.5% |
28
20.9% |
Jimmy Griffin |
65
25.0% |
37
30.6%
+ |
28
20.9% |
None of the above
(DO NOT READ) |
9
3.5% |
4
3.3% |
5
3.7% |
Don't know/Not sure/Undecided
(DO NOT READ) |
86
33.1% |
37
30.6%
|
45
33.6% |
Refused (DO NOT READ) |
5
1.9% |
3
2.5% |
2
1.5% |
|
Ethinicity |
|
Total |
White |
Afr. Amer. |
Hisp. |
Asian |
Native Amer. |
Other |
Ref |
Base |
266 |
211 |
38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
Paul Clark |
47
18.1%
|
39
18.5% |
6
15.8% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
50.0% |
0
0.0% |
James Keane |
48
18.5%
|
41
19.4%
|
7
18.4%
|
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Jimmy Griffin |
65
25.0% |
52
24.6%
|
12
31.6%
|
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
50.%
|
0
0.0% |
None of the above [DO NOT READ] |
9
3.5%
|
8
3.8%
|
1
2.6%
|
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Don't know/Undecided [DO NOT READ] |
86
33.1%
|
69
32.7%
|
9
23.7%
|
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
4
100.0%
|
Refused [DO NOT READ] |
5
1.9%
|
2
0.9%
--
|
3
7.9%
+++
|
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Table: If the Republican presidential primary was held today, for whom would you mostly likely vote?
|
Ethnicity |
Gener |
|
Total |
White |
Afr. Amer . |
Hisp. |
Asian |
Native Amer. |
Other |
Ref |
Total |
Male |
Female |
|
Base |
140 |
126 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
140 |
81 |
56 |
Sam Brownback |
2
1.4% |
2
1.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
2
1.4% |
2
2.5% |
0
0.0% |
Rudy Giuliani |
59
42.1% |
54
42.9% |
5
50.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
59
42.1% |
42
51.9%
+++ |
17
30.4%
-- |
Mike Huckabee |
1
0.7% |
0
0.0% |
1
10.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
0.7% |
1
1.2% |
0
0.0% |
Duncan Hunter
|
2
1.4% |
2
1.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
2
1.4% |
2
2.5% |
0
0.0% |
John McCain |
13
9.3% |
10
7.9% |
2
20.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
13
9.3% |
9
11.1% |
3
5.4% |
Ron Paul |
5
3.6% |
4
3.2% |
1
10.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
5
3.6% |
5
6.2% |
0
0.0% |
Mitt Romney |
1
0.7% |
1
0.8% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
0.7% |
1
1.2% |
0
0.0% |
Tom Tancredo |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Tommy Thompson |
2
1.4% |
2
1.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
2
1.4% |
1
1.2% |
1
1.8% |
None of the above
(DO NOT READ) |
9
6.4% |
9
7.1% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
9
6.4% |
4
4.9% |
4
1.8% |
Don't know/Not sure/Undecided
(DO NOT READ) |
44
31.4% |
40
31.7% |
1
10.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
100.0% |
1
100.0% |
0
0.0% |
44
31.4% |
13
16.0%
--- |
30
53.6%
+++ |
Refused (DO NOT READ) |
2
1.4% |
2
1.6% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
2
1.4%
|
1
1.2% |
1
1.8% |
Table: If the primary election for Erie County executive was held today, for whom you most likely vote?
|
Gener |
|
Total |
Male |
Female |
|
Base |
140 |
81 |
56 |
Chris Collins |
43
30.7% |
26
32.1% |
17
30.4% |
Bill O'Laughlin |
19
13.6% |
14
17.3% |
5
8.9% |
None of the above
(DO NOT READ) |
16
11.4% |
11
13.6% |
4
7.1% |
Don't know/Not sure/Undecided
(DO NOT READ) |
61
43.6% |
30
37.0% |
29
51.8% |
Refused (DO NOT READ) |
1
0.7% |
0
0.0% |
1
1.8% |
|
Ethinicity |
|
Total |
White |
Afr. Amer. |
Hisp. |
Asian |
Native Amer. |
Other |
Ref |
Base |
140 |
126 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Chris Collins |
43
30.7% |
40
31.7% |
3
30.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Bill O'Laughlin |
19
13.6% |
18
14.3% |
1
10.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
None of the above [DO NOT READ] |
16
11.4% |
13
10.3% |
2
20.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Don't know/Undecided [DO NOT READ] |
61
43.6% |
54
42.9% |
4
40.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
1
100.0% |
1
100.0% |
0
0.0% |
Refused [DO NOT READ] |
1
0.7% |
1
0.8% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
0
0.0% |
Any use of these results must cite Dr. Gerald Goldhaber and Goldhaber Research Associates, LLC
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