2008 Results

HILLARY AND MCCAIN POISED TO WIN CRUSHING VICTORIES IN ERIE COUNTY

Williamsville, New York - Among democrats, Hillary is strongly ahead in Erie County: 45% of registered democrats favored Hillary while only 19% favored Obama (over a 2-1 lead for Hillary). Edwards still netted some support (7%), while 25% of the democratic electorate was still undecided. This is Hillary country indeed! Hillary is doing better in the Suburbs than Obama where she leads 49% to 15%, while in the City of Buffalo (which has a higher registration of African American voters) she leads 40% to 26%. As expected, she's doing much better among women (51% to 17% for Obama) than among men (37% to 22% for Obama).

Among republicans, McCain leads Romney by 2-1 in Erie County (28% to 14%) with Huckabee getting 8%, Giuliani (even though he dropped out of the race) still getting 6% and others getting 2%. Republicans had a higher percentage of “undecideds,” 30% against the democrats 25%, while 12% of the republicans polled said “none of the above.” This 42% (2/5th of the republican electorate) indicates that the Republicans, while giving McCain the lead, aren't as strong for him as the Democrats in Erie County are for Hillary. McCain's support was the same in the City of Buffalo (29%) and the Suburbs (28%) but Romney was doing better in the City of Buffalo (21%) than in the Suburbs (13%). Since the number of Republicans in the City of Buffalo is small (and the relative margin of error is thereby high), these numbers may not be that accurate for the City. Finally, McCain did much better among men than women (35% versus 23%) probably due to his military background while Romney did equally well (14%) among men and women.

GRA, the area’s largest market and opinion research firm, conducted the poll, which surveyed 400 registered democratic voters (margin of error of +/- 4.9%) and 341 registered republicans (margin of error of +/- 5.3%) who lived in Erie County and who are likely to vote in Tuesday's primaries. Samples were drawn in proportion to the actual percentage of registered democrats and republicans in the City of the Buffalo and the suburbs of Erie County. The democratic poll was conducted January 27- February 2, 2008, and the republican poll was conducted January 30 - February 2, 2008.

Any use of these results must cite Dr. Gerald Goldhaber and Goldhaber Research Associates, LLC

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