SHOULD AUTONOMOUS CARS COME WITH WARNINGS?

Jun 10, 2021
In my new book, Murder, Inc., I tell the following story:

In May, 2016, 40-year old Joshua Brown became the first person to die "behind the wheel" of an autonomous car when his Tesla Model S, cruising on Autopilot, crashed into an oncoming tractor trailer that was making a left turn, the car going right under the trailer section and hitting a fence and a power pole before coming to rest. In the ensuing investigation into the cause of the crash, Tesla acknowledged that its onboard camera failed to recognize the white broadside of the trailer against a bright sky, and therefore the Model S consequently failed to brake to a stop to avoid the collision. However, in a final report in which NHTSA looked at several other Tesla Autopilot incidents involving injuries in addition to the fatal Brown crash, the agency concluded that it "did not identify any (safety-related) defects in the design or performance" of Autopilot, or "any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed." In short, NHTSA concluded that, although Autopilot did not prevent the accident, it performed as it was designed and intended, and therefore did not have a defect, and did not warrant a product recall by Tesla. In other words, the car didn't cause the crash. Huh?

Upon release of their report, NHTSA spokesman Bryan Thomas said, "Not all systems can do all things. There are driving scenarios that automatic emergency braking systems are not designed to address." If that's the case, I think it's fair to say that the limitations of the system caused Joshua Brown's fatal car crash. In a final statement that seems to run diametrically counter to the whole idea of the fully autonomous vehicle, Thomas insisted that "Autopilot requires full driver engagement at all times." NHTSA has, in fact, strongly warned automakers about naming and marketing semiautonomous driving systems in ways that lead consumers to believe that they can mindlessly let the car drive itself while they sit back reading the paper or texting on smartphones while trying to drink superheated coffee without scalding themselves. Because you can't do that! And it may be decades before you will be able to do that, if it ever happens at all.

Apparently the American people are just fine with this. According to a new Brookings Institution survey, 61% of adult Americans stated that they would not feel comfortable riding in a self-driving car, 52% believe that autonomous vehicles still actually require some level of human control and 75% would much rather drive a car than ride in an autonomous car and want Congress to try and put the brakes on driverless cars.

Maybe these statistics were impacted by news from Uber, who until 2020, had been committed to developing a fleet of autonomous cars, but recently sold its self-driving car business to Aurora Innovation, a startup founded by the former head engineer of Google's pioneering self-driving car project. Perhaps not a coincidence, but just two years prior to Uber's decision to leave the autonomous car business, on March 18, 2018, an Uber self-driving SUV accompanied by a safety driver, Rafaela Vasquez who was streaming an episode of "The Voice" while on a road in Tempe, Arizona and was distracted for most of the time while driving, struck and killed a pedestrian, 49 year-old Elaine Herzberg while she was crossing the street, outside the crosswalk, with her bicycle. The Uber car only detected Herzberg 5.6 seconds before the impact. During their investigation of the crash, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) showed that Uber's autonomous test vehicles were involved in 37 crashes 18 months prior to the Arizona incident. Apparently, Uber self-driving cars didn't know pedestrians could jaywalk. Prosecutors ruled that Uber wasn't liable for Herzberg's death, however, that didn't stop her family from suing Uber, the city of Tempe and the State of Arizona. Uber promptly settled the case while litigation against the city and state continues.

What does this mean for the future of autonomous vehicles in the United States? First and foremost, Elon Musk was wrong when he said in 2015 that "self-driving cars that can drive anywhere will be here in 2-3 years." He wasn't alone in erroneous prognosticating. In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted that these vehicles would "all but end car ownership by 2025"...4 years from today. The truth is that most experts today aren't sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel free cars that drive themselves off the lot. According to a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, it will require a major breakthrough in artificial intelligence (AI), which almost no one is predicting will arrive anytime soon, in order to produce self-driving cars. Even Elon Musk may have seen the light. According to the WSJ, Musk recently tweeted, "A major part of real-world AI has to be solved to make unsupervised, generalized full self-driving work." "Translation: For a car to drive like a human, researchers have to create AI on par with one."

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