TEXAS HILL COUNTRY FLOODS: DID WARNINGS FAIL VICTIMS?

From July 3–4, 2025, Central Texas—especially Kerr County and the Guadalupe River basin—experienced catastrophic flash flooding that claimed over 130 lives, including children and staff at Camp Mystic. As grief and outrage settle, survivors and officials alike are questioning whether enough was done to warn those most at risk.

July 3, 1:18 PM – Initial Flood Watch Issued

On July 3 at 1:18 p.m. CT, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a flood watch for Kerr County, predicting 1–3″ of rain, with isolated amounts up to 7″.

A flood watch issued by the National Weather Service at 1:18 PM CDT on Thursday, July 3, 2025, several hours before the start of the deadly and historic July 2025 Central Texas floods.

But late-night rains far exceeded that, as more than 12″ fell within hours, and the Guadalupe River gauge rose from 0.34 ft at 11:45 p.m. to over 34 ft by 6:45 a.m., completely submerging the sensor.

July 4, Midnight–4 AM – NWS Emergency Alerts Sent

Between midnight and 4 a.m. on July 4, the NWS sent three urgent Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) to the public, including:

“THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”

The USCG continues to assist the state of Texas with flooding near Kerrville. USCG MH-65 helicopters have conducted 12 flights to the flooded area, rescued 15 campers from Camp Mystic in Hunt, and aided in the evacuation of 230 people. 

Local Alert Failures and Camp Mystic Conditions

Yet local government alerts were absent. In Kerr County, no county-issued push alerts accompanied the NWS warnings . Victims like campers and residents reported: “No warning at all” . Kerr County lacked an autonomous warning system like sirens linked to NWS data. Officials had debated installing one for nearly a decade, but rejected grant offers and funding due to cost sensitivity and political resistance.


By contrast, Comfort, a neighboring Kendall County town, installed a $60,000 siren system. It ran manually during the crisis and reported zero casualties. Because Camp Mystic prohibited campers from carrying phones, emergency alerts via cell were unlikely to reach them just before the flood.


A firefighter based in Ingram requested a local alert at about 4:22 a.m., but local dispatchers waited almost six hours for supervisor approval. The first CodeRED messages were delayed by 90 minutes or more, and some residents received them as late as 10 a.m., long after the flood struck.

An emergency siren is visible on top of the Comfort Volunteer Fire Department in Comfort, TX. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

At Camp Mystic, director Dick Eastland reportedly received a severe flood warning on his phone about an hour before the waters hit, but evacuation orders were not issued until too late.


Though NWS forecasts escalated rapidly, state officials argued some rainfall magnitude predictions missed the actual storm intensity, with up to 18″ falling vs. modest projections of far fewer amounts.


Staffing shortages within NWS offices in San Antonio and San Angelo have also come under scrutiny for weakening coordination: several key roles were vacant during the critical period.

Excessive rainfall outlook outlined at 16:00 on Friday, July 4, 2025, valid till 12:00, Saturday, July 5, 2025.

At the federal level, FEMA director David Richardson defended the response, calling it a “model,” while lawmakers criticized the agency for missed calls on hotlines and bureaucratic delays .


A FEMA urban search‑and rescue leader resigned mid‑response, citing frustration over procedural constraints.


Experts urge attention to the social trust dynamic in flood alerts. Many residents are conditioned to ignore repeated non‑urgent alerts, contributing to "alert fatigue”.


Without layered, specific, and instructive messages, even accurate forecasts may not drive action. 


A “multi‑layered” alert system consisting of sirens, wireless emergency alerts, local opt-in systems like CodeRED and even call trees may be deemed essential, especially in rural or low‑phone zones.


Areas served by siren systems like Comfort had no fatalities, while Kerr County, lacking such infrastructure, recorded over 100 deaths.


Camp Mystic, a known high-risk site, was allowed to operate in a 100‑year floodplain, and warnings there were downplayed or ignored despite prior expert recommendations.

NOAA/NWS data shows 4-day rainfall totals from July 3–7, 2025. Parts of Burnet, Williamson, and Travis counties received over 20 inches, leading to catastrophic flooding. Source: CW3E, UC San Diego Full report (PDF)

As I write this newsletter, Texas lawmakers in a special session are debating legislation to:


  • Fund county-level sirens and flood gauge upgrades
  • Require evacuation planning for camps and floodplain developments
  • Expand grants and oversight tied to early-warning implementation


The Upper Guadalupe River Authority (UGRA), which previously declined a low-cost $1 million state loan, has faced bipartisan criticism for prioritizing tax cuts over public safety.


FEMA critics and lawmakers across party lines are calling for improved central coordination and repealing internal rules that delayed rescue team deployment.


Editorials, such as those in the Austin American‑Statesman and Houston Chronicle, argued the floods revealed decades of preparedness failures, and urged climate‐informed planning and flood‑risk awareness.

WATCH: NOAA/NWS radar reflectivity — Central Texas flash flood event, circa July 3–4, 2025

Source: NWS radar compiled in Historic Texas Flash Flooding Radar Archive (YouTube video based on NOAA data)

As the Warnings Doctor, it is obvious to me that the Texas floods revealed a major failure to warn the public about an immediate life-threatening event.


At a minimum, the following actions need to be taken:



  • Federal and state leaders must update disaster protocols, mandate sirens and gauge networks in high-risk zones, and ensure local officials act on NWS warnings.
  • A multi-layered alert system should become the norm, with redundancy built into phone, siren, and personal outreach channels to overcome rural gaps and device restrictions.
  • Trust in alerts can't be taken for granted. Messages must be action-based, localized, and impactful, not generic or technical.


Without accountability and persistent investment, another flash flood could repeat these errors. For the survivors, the loss will linger—but their voices may yet save future lives.

TEXAS LEADS THE NATION: WARNING LABELS ON ADDITIVES

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • July 9, 2025
On June 22, 2025, Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 25 (SB25), known as the Make Texas Healthy Again Act. Beginning January 1, 2027, Texas will require prominent on-pack warning labels whenever food sold in the state contains any of 44 specific additives—including synthetic colorants like Red 40, Yellow 5, Blue 1, titanium dioxide, bleached flour, and partially hydrogenated oils. The mandated label must declare the following:

WARNING: FDA DELAYS IMPLEMENTATION OF RULE THAT WOULD REQUIRE NEW NUTRITION LABELING

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • May 27, 2025
The FDA is delaying implementation of a rule that would require food companies to print nutritional information on the front labels of their products. The proposed rule was developed by President Biden’s Administration, with a comment period scheduled to close on May 16. The rule is designed to help consumers make better choices to avoid chronic health problems. Such problems—and consumer choices about nutrition—are things President Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has repeatedly touted. Even though hundreds of comments have been filed about the proposed rule, Kennedy’s Food and Drug Administration is delaying the close of the comment period by 60 days. Most of the comments filed so far have come from food companies and food industry trade organizations. “ A 60-day comment period extension allows adequate time for interested parties to submit comments while also not significantly delaying rulemaking on the important issues in the proposed rule ,” according to the FDA’s announcement about the delay. 

WARNING: THE GENDER BIAS IN CAR SAFETY TESTING PRESENTS AN ONGOING DANGER

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • April 30, 2025
Car accidents are a leading cause of injury and death worldwide, yet the safety measures designed to protect occupants in these life-or-death situations have long ignored a critical reality: women are more likely to be severely injured or killed in crashes than men. This disparity isn't rooted in biology alone—it’s also a result of a troubling oversight in the automotive industry’s safety testing protocols. For decades, crash-test dummies, which serve as proxies for human passengers in simulated collisions, have been modeled after the average male physique, leaving women out of the equation entirely. The Alarming Data Gap The implications of this gender gap in safety testing are both staggering and infuriating. Women, on average, have different body compositions than men—they tend to be shorter, lighter, and have different muscle distributions and bone densities. These physiological differences mean that women’s bodies interact with car safety features—such as seat belts, airbags, and headrests—in distinct ways. When vehicles aren’t tested with dummies that accurately represent female anatomy, crucial data about how to better protect women in crashes is simply ignored. Studies have revealed the dire consequences of this exclusion. Research from the University of Virginia found that women are 47% more likely to sustain serious injuries in car accidents compared to men, even when accounting for variables like seatbelt usage and crash severity. Women are also significantly more likely to suffer whiplash injuries due to the positioning of headrests, which are often designed with men’s neck dimensions in mind. These statistics aren’t just numbers—they represent lives cut short, families broken, and untold suffering that could have been mitigated with equitable safety testing.

WARNING: ARE MUSK, KENNEDY, AND TRUMP IGNORING THE GRAVE CONSEQUENCES OF SLASHING PUBLIC HEALTH FUNDING?

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • April 14, 2025
Recent budget cuts at the Health and Safety Science Services (HSSS) have sent shockwaves through the scientific and public health communities, threatening the very infrastructure designed to protect us from disease outbreaks, food contamination, and medical crises. These cuts have affected food inspectors, vaccine scientists, Alzheimer’s researchers, and experts studying bird flu, among others—positions that are essential to ensuring public safety and advancing critical medical research. The consequences of these decisions will be dire, potentially reversing years of progress and exposing society to increased health risks.

WARNING: IS ELON MUSK'S DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY JEOPARDIZING AIR SAFETY?

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • March 12, 2025
As Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DGE) pushes for sweeping reforms and cost-cutting across federal agencies, concerns are mounting over the impact on critical public safety roles. Among the most alarming areas affected is the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), where staff reductions may threaten the lives of millions of air travelers. The DGE, established with a mandate to streamline government operations and reduce bureaucratic waste, has come under fire for its aggressive downsizing tactics. Critics warn that essential safety personnel, including air traffic controllers, are being cut under the guise of efficiency, leaving the nation's airspace dangerously understaffed.

WARNING: WILL TRUMP'S SURGEON GENERAL SUPPORT IMPROVED ALCOHOL WARNING LABELS?

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • February 11, 2025
Biden Administration former Surgeon General, Vivek Murthy, on his way out of office, issued a Surgeon General's Advisory calling for new warnings on alcoholic beverages related to the cancer risk from consuming alcoholic beverages. Given that most individuals are unaware of the connection that consumption of alcoholic beverages can increase the risk for at least seven types of cancer, Murthy said in his advisory: "Given the conclusive evidence on the cancer risk from alcohol consumption and the Office of the Surgeon General's responsibility to inform the American public of the best available scientific evidence, the Surgeon General recommends an update to the Surgeon General's warning label for alcohol-containing beverages to include a cancer risk warning."

WARNING: TRUMP'S RE-ELECTION MEANS A DEREGULATORY NIGHTMARE FOR CONSUMERS

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • December 2, 2024
In my best-selling book, Murder, Inc.: How Unregulated Industry Kills or Injures Thousands of Americans Every Year...And What You Can Do About It , I propose a safety triad consisting of three components: manufacturers, regulators and consumers. All three must function properly in order to keep us safe. Manufacturers must produce and market safe (or safe as possible) products and warn us about any potential hazards so that we can make informed choices about whether or not to purchase their product and/or how to use it safely. Regulators , by imposing and implementing necessary rules and regulations, should hold manufacturers accountable for the above stated actions and to endure that they engage in "principled disclosure" by warning us about any potential hazards and dangers associated with their products. And, finally, Consumers , especially in the absence of well-meaning manufacturers or competent, well-intentioned regulators, must be highly diligent by researching products and learning about potential hazards prior to buying and/or using them. All three, manufacturers, regulators and consumers, must perform their jobs or the safety triad may fail to protect us and our loved ones. Think of a three-legged stool that distributes the weight of a person sitting on the stool, equally among the three legs. But what would happen if we leaned heavily to one side of the stool, essentially spreading the weight that was once borne by three legs to the two legs remaining braced to the floor. Unfortunately the third leg is no longer contributing to the stability of the stool, which may actually collapse because the two remaining legs may not be able to handle the amount of weight that was intended to be equally distributed among all three legs. 

WARNING: FDA RECOMMENDS REMOVING POPULAR DECONGESTANT FROM MARKET

By Dr. Gerald Goldhaber • November 15, 2024
If you or anyone in your family has used, uses or plans to use such over the counter (OTC) remedies for the flu or common cold as Theraflu, Robitussin, NyQuil, DayQuil, Mucinex, Sudafed or even some versions of Tylenol or Advil, you may want to read this newsletter very carefully.

WARNING: SOCIAL MEDIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT MENTAL HEALTH HARMS FOR ADOLESCENTS

By Gerald Goldhaber • October 2, 2024
In an unprecedented, but, according to many social scientists and parents, a long overdue action, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, in a June editorial in the New York Times, called for a warning label to be placed on all social media platforms. In the words of the Surgeon General:

WARNING: DOES YOUR REFRIGERATOR CONTAIN LISTERIA?

By Gerald Goldhaber • September 5, 2024
If you are one of the millions of Americans who recently purchased one of several Boar's Head Deli Products, you may have bought a product containing deadly listeria bacteria. At least nine people have died and 57 have been hospitalized from a listeria outbreak linked to deli meat, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In late July, Boar’s Head, a deli meat and cheese company, expanded a previously announced recall to include at least 7 million pounds of deli products the company says may have been contaminated by listeria amid a nationwide outbreak. The recall spans 71 products and includes meat meant to be sliced at retail delis along with prepackaged meat and poultry products sold at retail locations, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
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