DOES TESLA'S FULL SELF-DRIVING SYSTEM ADEQUATELY WARN DRIVERS?

Gerald Goldhaber • Mar 31, 2023

"My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination: probably toward the end of next year. I would say I am certain of that. That is not a question mark." (Elon Musk, 2019). Since he made these obviously wrong, over-promised predictions about the future of his "autonomous vehicle" project, Tesla has been embroiled in dozens and dozens of major lawsuits, some even around the world.

According to the New York Times Magazine (1/22/23, p.29), "in China, a Tesla slammed into the back of a street sweeper.  In Florida, a Tesla hit a tractor-trailer that was stretched across two lanes of a highway.  During a downpour in Indiana, a Tesla Model 3 hydroplaned off the road and burst into flames.  In the Florida Keys, a Model S drove through an intersection and killed a pedestrian.  In New York, a Model Y struck a man who was changing his tire on the shoulder of the Long Island Expressway.  In Montana, a Tesla steered unexpectedly into a highway barrier.  Then the same thing happened in Dallas and in Mountain View and in San Jose."  While it is true that in recent years, there have been on average more than 10-11 million accidents/year resulting in approximately 5 million injuries and 40,000 deaths/year, it is also true that Elon Musk and other developers of full self-driving (FSD) vehicles have promised us we'd be safer with their products than with our standard vehicles.  But are we safer with FSD (or automatic) vehicles?

As with most things, it's complicated.  Ever since Autopilot was introduced in 2015, Musk, in his normal use of puffery, has tried to make drivers think that Autopilot was probably better than a human driver.  He'd often brag that "the car is driving itself."  Of course, at the same time he was exaggerating the car's safety capabilities, probably on the advice of his lawyers, the small print in his manuals, contracts and other documents made it crystal clear that the technology was for "driver assistance" and NOT to replace the driver.  Of course, the lawsuits against Tesla are claiming that Tesla has consistently inflated consumers' expectations and downplayed the dangers involved in their cars.  For example, in April, 2019, Musk bragged, "if our system is dramatically better, more reliable than a human, then monitoring does not help much," while he didn't comment on Tesla's problems with its automatic braking system and its uncommanded lane changes.  Even more recently, with questionable data to back him up, Musk told shareholders at an August, 2023 meeting that Tesla's AI "would save millions of lives and prevent tens of millions of serious injuries by driving an order of magnitude safer than people."  Musk is relying upon his quarterly safety reports to the public which show a consistent advantage to using Autopilot over regular cars, concluding that Teslas with Autopilot engaged are 1/10th as likely to get into an accident as drivers in a regular car.  Critics of these data, including Philip Koopman, author of "How Safe is Safe Enough? Measuring and Predicting Autonomous Vehicle Safety", claim that Tesla is comparing Autopilot miles (which are mostly on highways) with all vehicle miles (which mostly include local roads, where most accidents occur), thus, unfairly weighting their conclusions towards an inflated estimate of safety.  Tesla's data are even shakier when you compare the demographics of Tesla drivers (who are mostly middle aged and older) with all drivers (which includes teenagers, the most likely drivers to be in accidents).  Other problems with Tesla's data are that they are skewed to people with newer cars (who are less likely to be in accidents) and to people driving in mild, drier weather (e.g., California, where most Tesla drivers reside).

Despite all of these questionable data and all of the lawsuits facing Tesla, Musk, in another bravado statement announced in January of this year that Tesla was disconnecting its steering wheel warning system (which he fondly called the "steering wheel nag") which warned drivers who removed their hands from the steering wheels, every few seconds with a beeping noise.  This prompted an immediate response from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that they would investigate this decision by Tesla.  Coincidentally, shortly after they made this announcement, NHTSA announced that Tesla would recall 362,000 vehicles because their driver assistance system did not adequately adhere to traffic safety laws and could cause crashes.  NHTSA said the "Tesla software allows a vehicle to exceed speed limits or travel through intersections in an unlawful or unpredictable manner which increases the risk of a crash."

So what's the bottom line? Is it safe to drive a Tesla with its Autopilot system engaged? One thing is certain: Tesla is still involved in its national beta-testing program where volunteer drivers (in the tens of thousands) are actively and eagerly, despite all of its potential flaws, active lawsuits and NHTSA investigations, still testing the system on both local roads and highways. As the Warnings Doctor, I have a "wait and see" attitude. I will wait for the completion of both the NHTSA investigations and Tesla's own beta testing before I draw any conclusions about my own safety and that of my loved ones.


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Please feel free to share this issue of the Goldhaber Warnings Report with any interested friends or colleagues who may wish to subscribe to this newsletter or enroll in any of my NACLE courses on warnings.

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